UFC 296 is set for December 16th at the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In today’s post, I want to look specifically at the Brian Kelleher vs Cody Garbrandt fight. Both of these bantamweight fighters have interesting injury histories, and for that reason this is my personal FOTN for the UFC 296 card. Plus, I have some other notes and questions at the end.
Brian Kelleher
Kelleher recently underwent cervical fusion surgery. This is his first bout since June of 2022, and he has lost his last two fights. His neck is now fused from the 5th through the 7th cervical vertebrae, meaning that these segments do not move. It’s been less than a year since his surgery.
I posted an article on Kelleher’s surgery a couple of months ago, in which I look not only at the surgery, but one concern I have for Kelleher during the fight; the guillotine submission. Check out the link below if you want to read more.
The guillotine choke potentially places an acute flexion stress on the cervical spine. Brian’s fused cervical segments will not flex. Research suggests that the lower cervical segments, including the 5th through 7th cervical vetebrae, provide a substantial amount of the total cervical flexion movement, up to the terminal available range of motion. How does a fighter who is still recovering from this surgery prepare to be placed in such a predicament, even from a fighter like Garbrandt who isn’t known for submissions?
Cody Garbrandt
Cody hasn’t had a recent major injury that required surgery or an extensive time away from fighting. But he continues to be one of the most injury-riddled fighters that I have ever followed. Here is a review of his injuries just since his last fight in March.
He went into his last fight vs Trevin Jones with a neck injury, and was close to pulling out of that fight. He stated in an August interview that he had injections into his neck 3 days prior to his last fight, due to three herniated discs that were causing pain.
Cody then pulled out of his August fight vs Mario Bautista due to a knee injury.
Since the knee injury, he has suffered other injuries including a calf injury, and bouts of severe low back pain. He recently had injections for his lower back, attempting to resolve that pain to allow him to resume training.
Since August, he has also had a hip injury that required a period of rehabilitation as well.
Prior to his recent spate of injuries, Garbrandt had a biceps tear in 2020, and another unspecified tendon tear in 2019 that required surgery. His lower back problem is a chronic one, dating back to at least 2017.
Garbrandt is only 32 years old, but his body is nearing train wreck status at this point. I don’t say this lightly, as history has shown that MMA athletes have a tremendous ability to recover from injury and have productive careers.
In my October piece, I picked Garbrandt to win this fight via decision. I am changing that pick after diving a little deeper into Garbrandt’s injury history. Maybe I am being overly dramatic, but I would not be surprised if Cody sustains an injury in this fight. It’s impossible to predict injuries at any one point in time, but with the injuries that he has battled back from just since his last fight, I feel like this is entirely possible.
My pick will be Brian Kelleher via decision.
Quick notes and questions
Paddy Pimblett returns after a year away from the cage. He had an ankle injury which required surgery to repair.
What will Tony Ferguson have left after what seemed to be a brutal conditioning camp at the hands of that Goggins dude?
Casey Oneill returns to fight for the first time since an unspecified surgery in August of this year. She had just returned from ACL surgery, and lost to Jennifer Maia in March. My question; was the August surgery on her knee, the same knee that she had ACL surgery? I hope not.